NFL draft: Three first-round trade frameworks that could make sense for Broncos on Thursday night

Draft week is here The Broncos and teams around the NFL have mostly set their final prospect rankings and are now working their way through modeling particular situations and trying to come up with as a great number of contingency plans as manageable The less surprise the better through the three days of picking players which begins with the first round Thursday night A big part of that planning is trying to figure out who might want to pact picks and when So everybody starts thinking about how they might want to move around the board and just as significant how other teams may want to You start talking parameters Broncos general manager George Paton announced last week It gets more serious draft week and then really draft day Sometimes you haven t heard from a unit and someone just really wants to come up and they are aggressive because their competitor is there Will the Broncos try to move up or down Thursday night from No If they make a move here are at least a couple of situations that could present themselves A couple of caveats Every squad values draft picks slightly differently and there are any number of strategies to try to peg value to future draft picks For this exercise we used the Jimmy Johnson arrangement value chart as the baseline but checked them against the Rich Hill model too The Giants jump back into Round Denver receives Nos and New York Giants receive No Jimmy Johnson model Broncos receive points and give a premium Rich Hill model Broncos receive points and give a premium Related Articles Broncos top priority heading into NFL draft Outfitting Bo Nix with more playmakers Broncos Journal Should Denver take Omarion Hampton or TreVeyon Henderson at No Renck File With Broncos now contenders Sean Payton must be bold in NFL draft Broncos mock draft What if Denver beefs up defensive line depth in first round Broncos draft preview Should Denver look for depth beyond Talanoa Hufanga In this scenario Cleveland takes Colorado s two-way superstar Travis Hunter or Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter at No overall and the New York Giants take the other Perhaps CU s Shedeur Sanders starts to slide down through the first round and New York starts to think about getting back into the first round They d likely at least consider that Pittsburgh might be in the quarterback sphere at No And that means they could check in with Denver at No Based on the way Paton and Payton talked last week the Broncos may not have a participant with a truly differentiated grade on the board when their pick comes up If that s the situation they could move back Even if they drop out of the first round altogether like in this example they might well get a similar quality player as at No Or they could use their new picks to try to get back up into the mid or late s If the Broncos really believe the strength of this draft is on Day and early Day then adding an extra third and extra fourth could be an attractive option The Broncos then end up with five picks in the top Nos and Maybe they could even squeeze No out of New York instead of Cleveland could be in a similar boat to the Giants They pick No overall and are similarly unsettled long-term at quarterback Cleveland could send Nos and points to Denver for No and No points That s a nearly identical premium to the Giants contract above on the Jimmy Johnson chart The absolute ideal situation for Denver Both the Giants and Browns are trying to get ahead of Pittsburgh and have to jockey to put together the best commerce package for Denver It s almost a encounter of chicken of who is willing to pay the biggest price and how much do they love one of these quarterbacks NFL Organization analyst Daniel Jeremiah mused last week about the possibility I don t even know that they like the same quarterback That s kind of an thought-provoking thing Denver Broncos first-round selection in the NFL football draft quarterback Bo Nix looks over a jersey after a news conference Friday April at the association s headquarters in Centennial Colo AP Photo David Zalubowski The Broncos make a big move up Denver receives Nos and New Orleans receives Nos and R Jimmy Johnson model Broncos exchange points and receive a premium Rich Hill model Broncos exchange points and receive points a premium Payton reported last week that coaches and executives develop a feel for who they can do business with and who is more averse There are certain ones that you know right away that you can do business without either company having to feel like they are getting a win Payton commented That s crucial Well there s no unit he s more familiar with than the Saints and general manager Mickey Loomis In this scenario the Broncos are likely only considering a big move up the board because Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is falling a bit This doesn t seem likely Jacksonville at No Las Vegas at No and the Saints are all attainable landing spots and Chicago or Dallas could more easily move up from No and No respectively too One other note here The Broncos cannot move up as high as No without decimating multiple years of draft capital No and their first-rounder may not be enough to get to No let alone No unless the domain is severely depressed Future picks typically come at a discount price Here we use one round as a guide and take the midpoint of the first round No to get points as a baseline value for Denver s first-rounder The Saints would be telling Payton Look you re going to be really good You ll be picking near the end of the first round next year It s not that great of a pick to acquire This deal results in a modest premium paid by Denver which gives you an idea of just how expensive a move up like this is The upshot for Denver is clear The rookie quarterback window is open If you believe Jeanty transforms your offense you can justify going up to get him and paying a steep price In this example picking up No in a swap also keeps Denver at seven picks for the class The Steelers play defense Denver receives Nos and Pittsburgh receives Nos and Jimmy Johnson model Denver receives points and trades about a premium Rich Hill model Denver receives points and trades a premium If Pittsburgh is looking to take a quarterback at No the club will certainly have a sense that other teams could try to move up to No If nothing else this could represent an easy opportunity for the Broncos Last year Minnesota moved up one spot to No to ensure it could get J J McCarthy ironically Payton took credit for being an evolving participant in trying to propagate the idea that he was interested in McCarthy Instead of lesson Denver happily took Bo Nix at No Now Denver could try to play the other side of that coin The beauty of this is that Denver could take the same member at No that it would have taken at No And it moves ahead of Pittsburgh in the third round and picks up an extra fourth-rounder in exchange for helping Pittsburgh land its quarterback or say a defensive tackle that the Steelers feel strongly about If the Steelers are fending off real competition for No they could also send their fifth No or swap that pick for one of Denver s sixths Nos and Want more Broncos news Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis